主题：Uncertainty Paradox

报告人：周晶，复旦大学

摘要：During economic downturns, firms increase information acquisition to reduce individual uncertainty. However, this heightened collective pursuit of information paradoxically results in a higher level of ex post uncertainty. We refer to this phenomenon as the "Uncertainty Paradox." To explain this paradox, we propose a model with sentiments under incomplete information. In our model, firms acquire information that enhances their understanding of both their idiosyncratic fundamental shocks and aggregate sentiments. When firms believe that sentiments drive aggregate output, acquiring more information unintentionally magnifies output volatility, thereby raising ex post uncertainty and reinforcing firms' incentive to acquire information. Using a standard macroeconomic framework, we show that as the economy transitions from expansion to recession, ex post uncertainty rises with increased ex ante information acquisition. Our results also offer a theoretical explanation for the endogenous rise in uncertainty and information acquisition during economic downturns.

报告人简介：复旦大学经济学院副教授，香港科技大学经济学博士。研究领域包括宏观经济学、宏观金融和中国经济，当前研究工作关注经济波动、资产泡沫等。论文发表于Journalof Monetary Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等国内外期刊，主持一项国家自然科学基金。

时间：2025年11月7日（周五）11:30-13:00

地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

主办单位：创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院