主题：Vague FOMC Communications

报告人：贾盾，北京大学

摘要：Our paper examines the economic implications of central bank communication clarity and rationalizes the importance of communication as an information-coordination device. We first show that the Federal Reserve consistently employs vague language to describe economic conditions in its FOMC communications. This vagueness is procyclical, in contrast to the counter-cyclical behavior of measures of economic, financial, and policy uncertainty. We document that increased FOMC vagueness induces greater overreaction and larger expectation revisions among professional forecasters—driven by heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic news—and attenuates the effects of monetary policy surprises on asset prices. We develop a model of incomplete information and show that vague communication can crowd in the informational roles of both the policy rate and asset prices. Overall, the paper highlights the complex interplay between central bank communication and economic outcomes, emphasizing how communication shapes expectation formation and the effectiveness of monetary policy.

报告人简介：北京大学汇丰商学院助理教授，北京大学博士生导师，马里兰大学经济学博士。研究领域包括宏观经济学、货币经济学、宏观金融和中国经济，当前研究工作关注量化宏观模型的微观基础以及市场结构和不完备信息于货币政策传导和宏观金融领域的相关应用。论文发表于American Economic Review、Review of Finance、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、《金融研究》和《世界经济》等国内外期刊，主持一项国家自然科学基金，参与国务院、国家开发银行及中国农业发展银行等机构多项研究课题。

时间：2025年10月28日（周二）11:30-13:00

地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

主办单位：创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院